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Eno Transportation Weekly

Final Democratic Gains in U.S. House: 40 Seats

November 29, 2018

The final tally from the November 6 general elections came in yesterday, as the last outstanding race was called by the Associated Press. David Valadao (R-CA), a member of the House Transportation-Housing Appropriations Subcommittee, was narrowly defeated by mail-in ballots after leading on Election Night and two weeks thereafter.

The final net gain for Democrats is 40 seats, so the House will go from a 240 R – 195 D ratio just before the elections (counting vacant seats as belonging to the party that vacated them) to a 235 D – 200 R ratio on the Opening Day of the 116th Congress, January 3, 2019.

A total of 46 seats actually changed hands, with a gross Democratic gain of 43, reduced by the three seats that the GOP took (MN01, MN08, and PA14). Democratic gains were concentrated in suburban districts and districts (like those in the California Central Valley) with a high Latino population. (Plus Pennsylvania, where a court decision rewrote the district lines at the last minute and upended a GOP gerrymander.)

The 40 net Democratic gains were concentrated in the following states:

  • California (+7)
  • New Jersey (+4)
  • Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia (+3 each)
  • Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Texas (+2 each)

The map below (courtesy of mapchart.net) shows all 46 seats that changed hands – the 43 districts that went from R to D are in blue and the 3 districts that went from D to R are in red.

A list of every House seat that changed hands in the election is below.

District Incumbent Seats GOP Pct Dem Pct Reporting Result
Seats GOP Starts With 240
AZ02 Open (R – McSally) -1 45.2% 54.7% 100.0% D PICKUP
CA10 Denham (R) -1 48.3% 51.7% 100.0% D PICKUP
CA21 Valadao (R) -1 49.8% 50.2% 100.0% D PICKUP
CA25 Knight (R) -1 45.8% 54.2% 100.0% D PICKUP
CA39 Open (R – Royce) -1 48.5% 51.5% 100.0% D PICKUP
CA45 Walters (R) -1 48.1% 51.9% 100.0% D PICKUP
CA48 Rohrabacher (R) -1 46.5% 53.5% 100.0% D PICKUP
CA49 Open (R – Issa) -1 43.9% 56.1% 100.0% D PICKUP
CO06 Coffman (R) -1 42.9% 54.1% 100.0% D PICKUP
FL26 Curbelo (R) -1 49.1% 50.9% 100.0% D PICKUP
FL27 Open (R – Ros-Lehtinen) -1 45.8% 51.8% 100.0% D PICKUP
GA06 Handel (R) -1 49.5% 50.5% 100.0% D PICKUP
IA01 Blum (R) -1 46.0% 50.9% 100.0% D PICKUP
IA03 Young (R) -1 47.5% 49.0% 100.0% D PICKUP
IL06 Roskam (R) -1 47.2% 52.8% 100.0% D PICKUP
IL14 Hultgren (R) -1 48.1% 51.9% 100.0% D PICKUP
KS03 Yoder (R) -1 44.2% 53.3% 100.0% D PICKUP
ME02 Poliquin (R) -1 49.4% 40.6% 100.0% D PICKUP
MI08 Bishop (R) -1 46.8% 50.6% 100.0% D PICKUP
MI11 Open (R – Trott) -1 45.2% 51.8% 100.0% D PICKUP
MN01 Open (D – Walz) +1 50.2% 49.8% 100.0% R PICKUP
MN02 Lewis (R) -1 47.2% 52.8% 100.0% D PICKUP
MN03 Paulsen (R) -1 44.3% 55.7% 100.0% D PICKUP
MN08 Open (D – Nolan) +1 50.7% 45.2% 100.0% R PICKUP
NJ02 Open (R – LoBiondo) -1 45.9% 52.3% 100.0% D PICKUP
NJ03 MacArthur (R) -1 48.8% 49.9% 100.0% D PICKUP
NJ07 Lance (R) -1 47.0% 51.5% 100.0% D PICKUP
NJ11 Open (R – Frelinghuysen) -1 42.7% 56.2% 100.0% D PICKUP
NM02 Open (R – Pearce) -1 49.3% 50.7% 100.0% D PICKUP
NY11 Donovan (R) -1 47.3% 50.2% 100.0% D PICKUP
NY19 Faso (R) -1 47.6% 49.8% 100.0% D PICKUP
NY22 Tenney (R) -1 49.6% 50.4% 100.0% D PICKUP
OK05 Russell (R) -1 49.3% 50.7% 100.0% D PICKUP
PA05 Open (R – Meehan) -1 34.9% 65.1% 100.0% D PICKUP
PA06 Open (R – Costello) -1 41.2% 58.8% 100.0% D PICKUP
PA07 Open (R – Dent) -1 43.5% 53.4% 100.0% D PICKUP
PA14 Open (D -Lamb) +1 58.0% 42.0% 100.0% R PICKUP
PA17 Rothfus (R) -1 43.8% 56.2% 100.0% D PICKUP
SC01 Open (R – Sanford) -1 49.3% 50.7% 100.0% D PICKUP
TX07 Culberson (R) -1 47.5% 52.5% 100.0% D PICKUP
TX32 Sessions (R) -1 45.9% 52.2% 100.0% D PICKUP
UT04 Love (R) -1 49.9% 50.1% 100.0% D PICKUP
VA02 Taylor (R) -1 48.9% 51.1% 100.0% D PICKUP
VA07 Brat (R) -1 48.4% 50.4% 100.0% D PICKUP
VA10 Comstock (R) -1 43.8% 56.2% 100.0% D PICKUP
WA08 Open (R – Reichert) -1 47.4% 52.6% 90.6% D PICKUP
Seats GOP Ends With 200
Subtract From 435 = Democratic Seats 235
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